Method of Victory
SUBMISSION
Submission is the most likely finish method at 44% probability. Dias's strong takedown game paired with Lee's vulnerable wrestling defense creates repeated opportunities on the mat, where Dias can threaten with chokes and joint locks across three rounds.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Dias holds a meaningful takedown accuracy edge at 57% against a fighter whose takedown defense sits at just 65%, creating a reliable path to the mat in a three-round fight. His higher Elo rating (1613 vs. 1560) reflects a broader competitive resume across 23 professional fights. The combination of grappling proficiency and Lee's exploitable wrestling defense gives Dias the tools to impose his game and find submissions or accumulate top control.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Lee's nearly 2:1 advantage in striking volume (3.2 vs 1.77 SLPM) could dominate rounds if Dias fails to secure takedowns
- ⚠Dias absorbs more strikes than he lands (2.7 SAPM vs 1.77 SLPM), meaning extended standup time heavily favors Lee
- ⚠Lee's superior striking defense (58% vs 53%) makes it harder for Dias to hurt him on the feet and set up grappling entries
