Method of Victory
KO/TKO
The KO/TKO is the most likely method at 43% because Matthews's striking defense and efficiency should allow him to accumulate damage while Harris leaves himself open absorbing 3.46 strikes per minute. Harris's 4 career KO losses confirm his chin can be compromised under sustained pressure.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Matthews holds a decisive Elo edge of nearly 109 points, reflecting a meaningfully higher competitive level. His 60% striking defense compared to Harris's 54% means he should win the efficiency battle on the feet while absorbing far less damage (2.62 vs 3.46 strikes per minute). Harris's primary path to victory — grinding on the mat — is undermined by his 22% takedown accuracy against Matthews's 64% takedown defense.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Harris's 76-inch reach and high control time (151 seconds avg) could become a factor if he manages to secure even one early takedown and impose his grappling
- ⚠Harris has never been submitted (0 sub losses), so if the fight goes to the ground, Matthews cannot rely on catching him off his back
- ⚠Harris's 5 KO wins show genuine finishing power — a single clean shot at range could upset the projection
