Method of Victory
DECISION
Decision is the most likely outcome at 45% probability because Song's volume advantage should allow him to control scorecards on the feet, but his 37% KO probability reflects his legitimate finishing power — if Figueiredo's chin fades under sustained fire, Song could get a late stoppage.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Song's massive volume advantage — nearly doubling Figueiredo's output at 4.42 versus 2.63 strikes landed per minute — gives him a clear path to outpointing Figueiredo across three rounds. His 3-inch height advantage and comparable reach help him maintain distance and dictate where the fight takes place. With 10 decision wins on his record, Song has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to sustain output and win rounds on the scorecards.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Figueiredo's elite control time (over 2 minutes per fight) could neutralize Song's striking volume if he secures takedowns and holds position
- ⚠Song absorbs nearly 4 strikes per minute and has been knocked out twice — Figueiredo's 53% accuracy and KO power make a single-shot finish plausible
- ⚠Figueiredo's submission game (9 career sub wins) is a serious threat if Song is taken down, especially given Song has no recorded submission defense stats
