Method of Victory
DECISION
Decision is favored at 51% because Duben's style produces high-volume, back-and-forth wars that tend to go the distance. However, with a 30% KO probability, the sheer number of strikes exchanged means a stoppage is far from unlikely.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Duben gets the narrow edge primarily because she has demonstrated UFC-level output and a willingness to push pace — her 13.53 strikes landed per minute is a volume that can overwhelm debuting fighters who aren't prepared for octagon intensity. Despite Chaves holding a marginally higher Elo, the raw probability is essentially a coin flip at 49.8% for Chaves, and Duben's known aggression gives her the slight decisioning edge over three rounds against an opponent with zero tracked UFC metrics.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Chaves' complete lack of tracked data means she could possess elite grappling or counter-striking that neutralizes Duben's volume entirely
- ⚠Duben's 53% striking defense is exploitable — a sharp counter-fighter could time her and score a finish
- ⚠At essentially 50/50 raw probability, this fight is a pure toss-up and any minor variable (cardio, octagon jitters, weight cut) could swing the outcome
