SHAHBAZYAN
Confidence
KO/TKO
Method of Victory
KO/TKO
The most likely path is a KO/TKO finish for Shahbazyan, capitalizing on Allen's poor 47% striking defense and tendency to absorb heavy volume. If Shahbazyan keeps the fight upright and lands clean, Allen has shown vulnerability to knockout losses with 2 KO defeats on his record.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Shahbazyan's 66% takedown defense is the linchpin — if he can stuff even two-thirds of Allen's shot attempts (Allen converts only 42% of takedowns), the fight stays on the feet where Shahbazyan's higher volume and finishing ability give him the edge. Allen's porous striking defense, absorbing 3.62 strikes per minute while only defending 47% of incoming shots, makes him hittable in extended exchanges. With the fight kept standing, Shahbazyan's power striking and Allen's defensive vulnerabilities create a clear KO/TKO pathway.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Allen's 42% takedown accuracy may still be enough to drag Shahbazyan down, especially in later rounds as fatigue sets in, and his 292-second average control time could neutralize any striking advantage
- ⚠Allen carries a higher Elo rating (1638 vs. 1612) and a deeper resume at 27-9, suggesting he may be the more battle-tested and adaptable fighter across three rounds
- ⚠Shahbazyan's raw probability sits at only 36.5% based on the model's own calculations, meaning this pick goes against the statistical favorite — a contrarian call that demands the stylistic edge holds
