NASCIMENTO
Confidence
Decision
Method of Victory
DECISION
Decision is the most likely outcome at 51% probability, driven by both fighters' emphasis on control time and neither showing notable finishing ability in their UFC stats. The pace and grappling exchanges project a grinding fight that goes the distance.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Nascimento's Elo rating sits over 100 points higher at 1576 vs. 1472, reflecting a more proven body of work across 28 professional fights. His striking output nearly doubles Raposo's (3.06 vs. 1.73 SLPM) at a far superior accuracy rate (55% vs. 36%), and his control time dominance (288.5 seconds vs. 105.3 seconds) means he wins in virtually every phase. The significant physical advantages in reach and height further compound these edges in a three-round flyweight bout.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Nascimento's low takedown defense (37%) could allow Raposo to implement a grinding, wrestling-heavy game plan that neutralizes striking advantages
- ⚠Raposo's 61% takedown defense and control-oriented approach could create ugly scramble rounds that judges score unpredictably
- ⚠At a 59% confidence level, this is a competitive flyweight bout where one well-timed exchange or scramble could flip the outcome
