MESQUITA
Confidence
Decision
Method of Victory
DECISION
A decision is the most likely outcome at 51% probability because Mesquita's striking dominance projects to accumulate rounds rather than produce a stoppage, especially against a durable opponent with strong anti-grappling defense. The 30% knockout probability reflects Mesquita's volume and accuracy potentially overwhelming Mullins' poor 52% striking defense.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Mesquita holds decisive advantages in striking accuracy (60% vs 50%), striking defense (80% vs 52%), and sheer volume (5.78 vs 3.71 SLPM). Even if her takedowns are partially neutralized by Mullins' 85% TDD, her ability to dominate on the feet — landing nearly 6 strikes per minute while absorbing less than 1 — should allow her to stack rounds on the scorecards. Her higher Elo rating (1530 vs 1484) and vastly deeper competitive experience further support the edge.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Mullins' 85% takedown defense could force Mesquita into a pure striking fight where her 0% TDD becomes exploitable if Mullins initiates grappling
- ⚠Mullins' size advantages (3 inches taller, 1 inch longer reach) could disrupt Mesquita's entries and create distance problems
- ⚠Limited UFC-level data on both fighters introduces uncertainty — small sample sizes can mask true tendencies
