Method of Victory
DECISION
Decision is the most likely outcome at 51% probability, reflecting Rosa's history of going the distance (13 decision wins) and Santos' apparent lack of finishing power. Rosa's volume should edge the scorecards across three rounds.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Rosa's massive striking volume advantage — 5.88 to 2.99 significant strikes per minute — should allow her to decisively win rounds on activity alone, especially in a three-round fight where judges reward output. Her wrestling adds a secondary avenue with 48% takedown accuracy and nearly four minutes of average control time, giving her tools to grind out close rounds. Despite Santos holding a slight Elo edge, Rosa's relentless pace and proven ability to win decisions (13 of her 20 wins) make her the more reliable pick.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Santos' elite 85% takedown defense could neutralize Rosa's grappling entirely, forcing a purely striking contest where Santos' 63% defense may frustrate Rosa
- ⚠Santos' superior Elo rating (1583 vs 1544) suggests recent performance momentum that may not be fully captured in per-minute averages
- ⚠Rosa's 49% striking defense means Santos can land clean counters even at low volume, and a single damaging sequence could shift momentum
