Method of Victory
DECISION
Decision is the most likely outcome at 44%, reflecting Gurule's control-heavy style and the likelihood that neither fighter possesses dominant finishing power at flyweight. The remaining probability is split evenly between knockout and submission at 28% each, acknowledging that both fighters carry some threat in those areas.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Gurule holds a meaningful Elo edge (1590 vs. 1566), absorbs significantly fewer strikes per minute (4.74 vs. 5.95), and defends strikes at a 9% higher clip. His ability to accumulate nearly 95 seconds of control time per fight gives him a clear path to winning rounds on the scorecards, even if his takedown accuracy is low — clinch control and cage work still score. Over three rounds, Barez's tendency to absorb heavy volume works against him in a decision scenario.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Barez's 80% takedown defense could completely shut down Gurule's grappling entries, forcing a pure striking fight where Barez's output and submission attempts could flip the script
- ⚠The raw probability split is razor-thin (49.1% Barez vs. 50.9% Gurule), meaning this fight is essentially a coin flip and any small adjustment could swing the outcome
- ⚠Gurule's 40% striking accuracy and 14% takedown accuracy suggest he may struggle to land clean or secure positions if Barez stays defensively disciplined
