Method of Victory
DECISION
The model splits the finish probability almost evenly between KO and decision at 37% each, but favors a decision outcome as the most likely single method. Santos's control-heavy game plan and Choi's durability in non-KO losses point toward a grinding 15-minute affair.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Santos's elite 73% takedown defense neutralizes Choi's occasional wrestling attempts, while his nearly four-minute average control time suggests he can stall Choi's offense whenever the fight hits the mat. Santos's volume-heavy style and superior cardio indicators — reflected in his decision-friendly profile — position him to outwork Choi across 15 minutes, especially as Choi tends to absorb significant damage in return exchanges.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Choi's 13 knockout wins mean any single exchange could end the fight instantly, regardless of the overall trajectory
- ⚠Santos's 40% striking accuracy and 51% striking defense leave him exposed in sustained pocket exchanges where Choi thrives
- ⚠Santos's UFC stats are extremely limited (T1 data gate), making projections about his performance at this level less reliable
