BUKAUSKAS
Confidence
KO/TKO
Method of Victory
KO/TKO
KO/TKO is the most likely outcome at 58% probability. Bellato's willingness to stand and trade with minimal head movement, combined with Bukauskas's proven power at light heavyweight, creates a recipe for a dramatic stoppage — likely a counter shot landing clean as Bellato wades forward.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Bukauskas holds a significant Elo advantage (1606 vs 1487), reflecting a deeper body of work against UFC-level competition. His knockout power — 11 KO wins — is tailor-made to exploit Bellato's porous 46% striking defense and willingness to absorb nearly 6 strikes per minute. The combination of finishing ability and a meaningful wrestling threat to mix up the attack gives Bukauskas multiple paths to victory in a three-round contest.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Bellato's 94% takedown defense could completely shut down Bukauskas's Plan B, forcing a pure striking battle where volume could swing rounds
- ⚠Bukauskas has been knocked out five times — Bellato's relentless pace and 60% accuracy could find the same holes previous opponents have exploited
- ⚠Bellato's UFC-specific win methods are unrecorded (T1 data gate), meaning his true finishing ability at the highest level remains an unknown variable
