CAVALCANTI
Confidence
Decision
Method of Victory
DECISION
Decision is the most likely outcome at 55% probability, as both fighters have strong submission/knockout defense and the majority of their wins come by judges' scorecards (9 of Vieira's 15, 7 of Cavalcanti's 10). Cavalcanti's volume striking should accumulate enough rounds to edge the cards.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Cavalcanti holds a massive striking volume advantage, landing 5.65 strikes per minute compared to Vieira's 2.76, while absorbing fewer shots and defending at a much higher rate. Her 46% accuracy paired with a 2-inch reach edge allows her to outpoint Vieira consistently from the outside. While Vieira's 44% takedown accuracy gives her a path to control, Cavalcanti's 88% takedown defense should neutralize enough wrestling attempts to keep this fight standing.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Vieira's elite 90% takedown defense translates to mat experience; if she manages to get Cavalcanti down, her 5+ minutes average control time could flip rounds decisively
- ⚠Cavalcanti has never been tested by a grappler of Vieira's caliber in the UFC, and her near-zero grappling offense means she has no fallback if pressed against the cage
- ⚠Vieira is the significantly more experienced fighter at 20 pro bouts versus 11, and her championship-level competition history could give her composure advantages in later rounds
