CHIMAEV
Confidence
Submission
Chimaev 70%
30% Strickland
Method of Victory
SUBMISSION
Submission or decision. Chimaev targets early takedowns — if he can finish in rounds 1-2, the weight cut is irrelevant. If Strickland survives into the championship rounds, the cut becomes a massive factor. Strickland wins by decision if he can stay upright.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Chimaev's wrestling and submission game is the clear stylistic edge here — but Strickland is more dangerous than his underdog odds suggest. He survived du Plessis twice and his takedown defense has been elite. The model favors Chimaev to grind out control time, but if Strickland stays upright past round 2, this fight gets interesting fast.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Strickland's TDD held up against du Plessis — 6 takedowns, only 128 seconds of control
- ⚠Chimaev has never been tested past round 3
- ⚠Chimaev confirmed 45lb weight cut — visibly drained at weigh-ins, severe cardio risk in rounds 4-5
