NICKAL
Confidence
Submission
Method of Victory
SUBMISSION
Submission is the most likely finish at 52% probability. Nickal's dominant wrestling and control time suggest he'll grind Daukaus down from top position, eventually transitioning to a choke or arm lock as Daukaus fatigues from carrying weight and defending — turning Daukaus's own preferred weapon against him.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Nickal's perfect takedown defense and over two-minute average control time per fight suggest he dictates where this fight takes place. His 55% takedown accuracy dwarfs Daukaus's 25%, meaning Nickal can reliably get the fight to the mat on his terms. With a 61% striking accuracy advantage over Daukaus's 53%, Nickal also holds the edge if this stays standing, and Daukaus's leaky 42% striking defense means he'll likely be forced to engage in grappling exchanges where Nickal's top control is suffocating.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Daukaus's 12 submission victories make him legitimately dangerous if Nickal gets too aggressive pursuing ground-and-pound and exposes his neck or arms
- ⚠Nickal's 59% striking defense and existing KO loss show he can be hurt — Daukaus has two KO wins and enough power to capitalize
- ⚠Daukaus's 82% takedown defense could frustrate Nickal's wrestling attempts, forcing a prolonged striking engagement that introduces variance
