ALMABAYEV
Confidence
Decision
Method of Victory
DECISION
Decision is the most likely outcome given Almabayev's control-and-grind approach over three rounds, but the submission threat is live anytime he secures top position thanks to those ten career taps.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Almabayev's path is clear and proven: ten submissions and a habit of controlling opponents for six-plus minutes a round give him a finishing dimension Johnson simply doesn't carry into this. Even if Johnson defends some entries, Almabayev's volume and persistence on the ground tend to wear down opponents over three rounds, and his stingy 1.99 strikes absorbed mean he won't get cracked while hunting takedowns. It's a solid lean, but Johnson's strong takedown defense and reach keep it from being a lock.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Johnson's 69% takedown defense is the real swing factor — if Almabayev can't get him down, the striking battle tilts toward the rangier man
- ⚠The five-inch reach gap lets Johnson tag Almabayev on the entries and rack up points at distance
- ⚠Almabayev's 42% takedown accuracy isn't dominant; a few stuffed shots early can swing the rounds
