Method of Victory
KO/TKO
KO/TKO is projected as the most likely outcome at 46%, reflecting Alves' prolific knockout record. If Alves can keep the fight standing — even partially — his power advantage should create opportunities to hurt and stop Inoue, who lacks the chin-testing credentials on the feet.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Alves holds the Elo advantage (1529 vs. 1499) and an extraordinary knockout rate that makes him dangerous every second the fight stays on the feet. With 10 KO/TKO wins and zero knockout losses, he has both proven offensive firepower and demonstrated durability. Inoue's lack of knockout power (only 2 KO wins) means Alves can likely stand in the pocket with relatively low risk of being hurt on the feet, forcing Inoue into a predictable takedown-dependent gameplan.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Alves has been submitted twice before — if Inoue secures a takedown and gets to a dominant position, the submission threat is very real
- ⚠Inoue's vast experience (25 pro fights, 20 wins) could translate to better cage IQ and tactical adjustments mid-fight
- ⚠With no detailed striking or grappling metrics available for either fighter, there is meaningful uncertainty in projecting round-by-round dynamics
