Method of Victory
KO/TKO
KO/TKO is projected as the most likely outcome at 42%, driven directly by Meskini's knockout rate — half his career wins end with the opponent on the canvas. If he lands clean, Lopes' lack of demonstrated finishing power suggests he may struggle to deter Meskini's aggression.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Meskini holds a meaningful Elo edge (1514 vs 1487), and his five knockout victories demonstrate he can end fights against featherweight opposition. With a 61.6% raw probability and the market pricing him as a solid favorite at implied 64%, the edge is modest but real. His ability to finish fights via multiple methods (KO or submission) gives him more paths to victory in a three-round contest.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Lopes' incomplete win-method data could mask a well-rounded skill set that the model undervalues
- ⚠Meskini fighting in Brussels as a potential home-crowd favorite could add pressure that cuts both ways — adrenaline dumps or over-aggression
- ⚠With no detailed striking accuracy, defense, or control time data for either fighter, the prediction relies heavily on record-based and Elo signals rather than granular performance metrics
