Method of Victory
KO/TKO
KO/TKO is projected at 59% probability, which lines up perfectly with the matchup data. Wilkinson's terrible absorption rate and declining form make him vulnerable to getting stopped, and Bably's knockout-heavy finishing profile suggests he'll be hunting for exactly that.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Bably's knockout power meets one of the worst defensive profiles in the division — Wilkinson eats nearly 5.7 strikes per minute and defends fewer than 4 in 10 shots thrown at him. Wilkinson is on a 2-fight losing streak with only a 40% win rate in his last five, signaling a clear decline trajectory. Bably's finishing instinct at 67% combined with Wilkinson's defensive holes creates a favorable path to a stoppage.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Bably has only one professional fight on record — this is essentially a debut-level sample size, and anything could happen against a more experienced opponent
- ⚠Wilkinson's 89% finish rate means if Bably gets sloppy or overextends, he could get caught by a counter or dragged into a submission — Wilkinson has 7 sub wins
- ⚠If this fight goes past the first round and turns into a grind, Bably's pattern of losing every decision he's been in suggests he lacks the tools to win on the cards
