Method of Victory
DECISION
Decision is the likeliest outcome at 37%, essentially tied with KO probability. Mgoyan's volume should pile up round-winning totals, but his zero recorded KO wins and Morales's solid defensive numbers suggest this goes the distance more often than not.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Mgoyan's striking volume of 5.67 per minute should overwhelm Morales, who lands at just 3.81 per minute and connects on only 35% of his strikes. Morales's natural grappling fallback is largely nullified by Mgoyan's perfect 100% takedown defense, removing a key avenue for winning rounds. Additionally, Mgoyan's 8-1 record and higher Elo rating (1555 vs 1495) reflect a fighter on the rise against a more battle-worn veteran with 10 losses.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Mgoyan absorbs 7.53 strikes per minute — against a disciplined counter striker with reach, this could lead to accumulation damage or a flash knockdown
- ⚠Morales's 2-inch reach advantage and 56% striking defense could blunt Mgoyan's volume and make rounds closer than expected on the scorecards
- ⚠The model's raw probability (57%) sits well below the market-implied line (81%), suggesting the odds may significantly overvalue Mgoyan and undervalue Morales's path to victory
