DESPAIGNE
Confidence
KO/TKO
Method of Victory
KO/TKO
KO/TKO is projected at 61% probability, which aligns with the heavyweight division's finish tendencies and JDS's well-documented vulnerability to strikes. Despaigne's length and volume should accumulate damage, and a late stoppage is the most likely path as dos Santos fades.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Despaigne lands more strikes per minute (4.8 vs. 4.49) with better accuracy (52% vs. 47%) and enjoys a massive 7-inch reach advantage that should allow him to control distance. Dos Santos has been stopped five times by knockout, and his compromised chin makes him exceptionally vulnerable against a heavy-handed heavyweight who can touch him repeatedly from range. The market prices JDS as a heavy favorite at 74% implied probability, but the raw model sees this as essentially a coin flip (50.3% for JDS), creating significant value on the younger, longer fighter.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Dos Santos' boxing fundamentals and timing remain elite — if he slips inside the reach, Despaigne's 42% striking defense could be badly exposed
- ⚠Despaigne's relatively thin 5-2 record and Elo of 1525 reflect limited experience against top-tier competition, and the step up here is significant
- ⚠If JDS opts to wrestle, Despaigne's 60% takedown defense and minimal control time (10 seconds average) could become a liability
