Method of Victory
KO/TKO
A KO/TKO is the most likely finishing method at 43% probability, reflecting Perry's power-punching style against a hittable opponent. However, the 36% decision probability reflects the real chance that Diaz's durability carries him deep into a competitive five-round war.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Perry's power advantage is the decisive factor — with a 43% projected knockout probability, his ability to hurt Diaz in exchanges is significant given Diaz absorbs nearly 3.8 strikes per minute with mediocre defensive numbers. Perry's 78% takedown defense effectively removes Diaz's submission game from the equation, forcing the Stockton fighter into a pure striking contest where Perry's heavier hands and forward pressure can accumulate damage over five rounds. The Elo gap (1618 to 1482) is notable, but Perry's stylistic profile directly counters Diaz's preferred paths to victory.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Diaz's 76-inch reach and 4.57 strikes per minute could allow him to outpoint Perry from the outside over five rounds, exploiting Perry's habit of absorbing 5.16 strikes per minute
- ⚠Perry's defensive liabilities mean he could get cut or accumulate damage leading to a doctor stoppage or late-fight fade
- ⚠Diaz's championship-round cardio and durability in decision fights (11 career decision losses show he consistently goes the distance) could grind Perry down in rounds 4 and 5
