JENKINS
Confidence
Decision
Method of Victory
DECISION
Decision is the most likely outcome given that Avila has never been stopped in 17 fights and Jenkins's finishing rate isn't reflected in the available stats. The KO probability sits at 37%, driven by Jenkins's volume against Avila's low defense, but Avila's iron chin makes a points victory the safer call.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Jenkins holds meaningful edges in striking accuracy (41% vs 30%) and volume (2.93 vs 2.37 SLPM), meaning he should outland Avila in nearly every round. While Jenkins absorbs heavy damage himself, Avila has never scored a knockout in his career and lacks the power to capitalize on Jenkins's defensive openings. The market heavily favors Jenkins at -310, and the model agrees at 64% confidence that his output and accuracy advantages carry the day.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Avila's higher Elo (1544 vs 1497) hints at a competitive edge not fully captured by raw stats, potentially reflecting better adaptability or intangibles
- ⚠Jenkins absorbs over 8 strikes per minute — even against Avila's low accuracy, that pace of absorption could lead to an accumulation stoppage or fatigue in later rounds
- ⚠Catchweight bout introduces unknown variables around how each fighter handles a non-standard weight cut, potentially affecting cardio and durability
