ROUSEY
Confidence
Submission
Method of Victory
SUBMISSION
Submission is projected at 58% likelihood because Rousey's elite submission rate and overwhelming control time advantage make a finish on the mat the most natural outcome once she secures top position. Carano's near-nonexistent submission defense and minimal ground offense mean she is unlikely to threaten or survive extended grappling sequences.
⚡FightIQ Analysis
Rousey's 68% takedown accuracy against Carano's 55% takedown defense creates a clear pathway to the mat, where Rousey's 4.8 submission attempts per fight dwarfs Carano's 0.4. The massive gap in control time — 180 seconds versus 55 — suggests that once Rousey secures a takedown, Carano will struggle to escape and return to her feet. Over five rounds, the accumulation of grappling exchanges heavily favors Rousey even if Carano wins isolated striking exchanges.
Risk Factors
- ⚠Rousey absorbs 4.14 strikes per minute with only 44% defense — Carano could catch her clean and exploit the same chin that produced two knockout losses
- ⚠Carano's 55% takedown defense is respectable enough that she could stuff early shots and build confidence on the feet before Rousey can establish her grappling
- ⚠The model's raw probability (52%) sits well below the market-implied line (81%), suggesting the edge may be thinner than the odds indicate and an upset is a live possibility
