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Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje Overview

Freedom 250
Lightweight · 5 rounds · Main Card
FightIQ forecastTopuria80%HEAVY FAVORITE
Your pick
Picks are closed · fight complete
Topuria
VS
Gaethje
OverviewMatchupFight ShapeMarket
FightIQ Read

FightIQ favors Topuria at 80%.

How This Fight Ends

Fight Shape is not available for this fight yet.

Your prop picksMethod and fight length
Method
Fight length · 2.5 rounds

Personal picks lock at fight start. Exact cutoff is a push.

Matchup

Tale of the Tape
TopuriaMetricGaethje
29Age37
5′7″Height5′11″
69″Reach70″
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
155 lbsWeigh-in155 lbs

Official weigh-in results.

Striking & Defense

Indicator moves from even toward the fighter with the advantage.

4.81Sig. strikes / min6.48
3.83Absorbed / minLower is better7.05
48%Accuracy58%
64%Defense51%
Wrestling & Control
1.96Takedown avg.0.33
61%Takedown accuracy27%
93%Takedown defense74%
0.00Submission avg.0.50
Style History

Style history is temporarily unavailable.

Recent Form

Topuria

5 recorded bouts shown

  1. LJustin GaethjeR4 · KO/TKO
  2. WCharles OliveiraR1 · KO/TKO
  3. WMax HollowayR3 · KO/TKO
  4. WAlexander VolkanovskiR2 · KO/TKO
  5. WJosh EmmettR5 · Decision

Gaethje

5 recorded bouts shown

  1. WIlia TopuriaR4 · KO/TKO
  2. WPaddy PimblettR5 · Decision
  3. WRafael FizievR3 · Decision
  4. LMax HollowayR5 · KO/TKO
  5. WDustin PoirierR2 · KO/TKO

Strength of Schedule

Longer bar means higher opponent quality.

Topuria
Checking history…
Gaethje
Checking history…
More Matchup Detail
History & Common OpponentsShared opponents and prior meetings

Gaethje won the prior meeting by KO/TKO.

Charles Oliveira: Topuria win, Gaethje loss.

Max Holloway: Topuria win, Gaethje loss.

Fight Shape

Fight Shape

What this matchup looks like on the fighters’ own records.

Why this fight may differMatchup-specific context
Topuria's power meets a proven weakness

41% of Topuria's wins come by knockout, and Gaethje has been stopped by strikes 3 times. That is the clearest route to an early night.

Topuria's grappling meets a proven weakness

47% of Topuria's wins come by submission, and Gaethje has tapped 2 times. One bad scramble decides it.

Market

Odds over time

Current moneyline is not available for this fight.

A comparable second price has not been captured yet.