It's close, but the edge lands on Lima. His striking defense (64% to Charriere's 53%) and cleaner damage differential mean he should win more exchanges without eating the counters, and Charriere's own history tells the story — 10 of his 12 losses came on the scorecards, exactly the kind of measured, distance fight Lima specializes in.
| Outcome | FightIQ | Typical | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO | 26% | 33% | −7 pts |
| Submission | 15% | 18% | −3 pts |
| Decision | 59% | 48% | +11 pts |