The AI sees a real but not overwhelming edge for Nikolić here, and it's worth being honest that most of it comes from what we can't see — a debutant-level book with no film for Vologdin's camp to break down, plus the Belgrade crowd behind him. The counter-case is that Vologdin is genuinely dangerous: he eats 11 strikes a minute and defends only a third of what's thrown, so if this becomes a firefight, his leaky defense is exactly the kind of hole a live underdog exploits.