FightIQ favors Moicano at 56%. Renato Moicano averages 1.7 takedowns per 15 minutes to 0.7 for Tom Nolan, creating the clearest verified contrast in a fight that profiles most often for a decision.
FightIQ whole-fight probabilities • not fighter-specific
Personal picks lock at fight start. Exact cutoff is a push.
| Moicano | Metric | Nolan |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 26 |
| 5′11″ | Height | 6′3″ |
| 72″ | Reach | 73″ |
| Orthodox | Stance | Southpaw |
| Pending | Weigh-in | Pending |
Populates after official weigh-ins.
Indicator moves from even toward the fighter with the advantage.
Style history is temporarily unavailable.
5 recorded bouts shown
5 recorded bouts shown
Longer bar means higher opponent quality.
No verified prior meeting or common-opponent comparison is available.
Historical UFC lightweight · 5-round fights · 30 fights · past 5 years
This projects to reach the scorecards more often than a normal fight in this division.
Reaching the cards is much higher than normal here.
Historical context — not a second forecast.
46% of Nolan's wins come by knockout, and Moicano has been stopped by strikes 3 times. That is the clearest route to an early night.
Moicano has 8 decision wins and Nolan has 5. Neither needs a finish to win a fight.
Current moneyline is not available for this fight.
A comparable second price has not been captured yet.
