FightIQ favors Rodrigues at 57%.
FightIQ whole-fight probabilities • not fighter-specific
Personal picks lock at fight start. Exact cutoff is a push.
| Hernandez | Metric | Rodrigues |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 34 |
| 6′0″ | Height | 6′3″ |
| 75″ | Reach | 75″ |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 186 lbs | Weigh-in | 185 lbs |
Official weigh-in results.
Indicator moves from even toward the fighter with the advantage.
Style history is temporarily unavailable.
5 recorded bouts shown
5 recorded bouts shown
Longer bar means higher opponent quality.
Rodrigues won the prior meeting by U-DEC.
Josh Fremd: Hernandez win, Rodrigues win.
Roman Kopylov: Hernandez win, Rodrigues win.
Historical UFC middleweight · 5-round fights · 36 fights · past 5 years
The submission threat here is well above what fights in this division usually produce.
Reaching the cards is lower than normal here.
Historical context — not a second forecast.
60% of Rodrigues's wins come by knockout, and Hernandez has been stopped by strikes 2 times. That is the clearest route to an early night.
FightIQ favors Rodrigues, while the market favors Hernandez.
This is context, not a recommendation.
Calculated from both fighters’ prices after accounting for the sportsbook’s margin.
UFC fighters at comparable market prices have won 33% historically.
