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Fight Night
Featherweight · Prelims
VS
JohnsvsVazquez
OverviewMatchupFight ShapeMarket

Overview

Forecast
Johns59%
SLIGHT FAVORITE
FightIQ Read

FightIQ favors Johns at 59%.

Current moneyline
Johns -205Vazquez +170
Moneyline · DraftKings · Aug 8, 10:00 PM UTC
Market ›
How This Fight Ends
Method forecast not available for this fight yet.
Your pick
Johns · R1FightIQ called it

Matchup

RECENT OPPONENT LEVEL
Quality of each fighter's recent competition.
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STRIKING ACCURACY & DEFENSE
Equal-weight comparison of striking accuracy and striking defense.
JohnsVazquez
Moderate edge: Johns
WRESTLING & CONTROL
Comparison based on takedown accuracy and takedown defense.
JohnsVazquez
Moderate edge: Johns
FINISH THREAT
Historical knockout and submission finishing ability.
JohnsVazquez
Slight edge: Vazquez

Fight Shape

Historical UFC featherweight · 3-round fights · 282 fights · past 5 years
How fights like this one have historically played out.
How long comparable fights last
Past 1.5 rounds
65%typical
Past 2.5 rounds
51%typical
Full distance
48%typical
Historical context — not a second forecast.

Market

MARKET FAVORS JOHNS
Johns
-205
DraftKings
Vazquez
+170
DraftKings
64%36%
Normalized market estimate with the bookmaker margin removed. It is context, not a true probability or a recommendation.
FightIQ vs Market
FIGHTIQ FORECAST 59%·MARKET ESTIMATE 64%
The market favors Johns more strongly than FightIQ does.
History at Similar Prices
65%
UFC favorites at comparable prices have won 65% historically.
Historical context · Not a prediction for this fight
Odds Over Time
Tracked line · DraftKings
First capturedLatest capturedJohns-185-205Vazquez+154+170
Aug 8, 1pm UTC → Aug 8, 10pm UTC12 observations
No-vig moneyline shift: 2.2 probability pts toward Johns.
JohnsVazquez
-205+170Aug 8, 1pmAug 8, 10pm
Aug 8, 10pm UTCJohns -205Vazquez +170
Tap or move across the chart to inspect a capture.
Best Available Price
Johns
-205
DraftKings · Aug 8, 10:00 PM UTC
Vazquez
+180
BetMGM · Aug 8, 10:00 PM UTC