MMA Fight Prediction & Matchup

Overview

Forecast

Sousa68%

STRONG FAVORITE

FightIQ Read

FightIQ favors Sousa at 68%.

Current moneyline

Sousa -345Miranda +275

Moneyline · DraftKings · Aug 8, 10:00 PM UTC

Market ›

How This Fight Ends

Method forecast not available for this fight yet.

Your pick

Sousa · R3FightIQ called it

Matchup

RECENT OPPONENT LEVEL

Quality of each fighter's recent competition.

Fight Shape

Historical UFC lightweight · 3-round fights · 334 fights · past 5 years

How fights like this one have historically played out.

How long comparable fights last

Past 1.5 rounds

63%typical

Past 2.5 rounds

49%typical

Full distance

44%typical

Historical context — not a second forecast.

Market

MARKET FAVORS SOUSA

Sousa

-345

DraftKings

Miranda

+275

DraftKings

74%26%

Normalized market estimate with the bookmaker margin removed. It is context, not a true probability or a recommendation.

FightIQ vs Market

FIGHTIQ FORECAST 68%·MARKET ESTIMATE 74%

The market favors Sousa more strongly than FightIQ does.

History at Similar Prices

74%

UFC favorites at comparable prices have won 74% historically.

Historical context · Not a prediction for this fight

Odds Over Time

Tracked line · DraftKings

First capturedLatest capturedSousa-250-345Miranda+205+275

Aug 4, 5pm UTC → Aug 8, 10pm UTC62 observations

No-vig moneyline shift: 5.9 probability pts toward Sousa.

SousaMiranda

Aug 8, 10pm UTCSousa -345Miranda +275

Tap or move across the chart to inspect a capture.

Best Available Price

Sousa

-330

FanDuel · Aug 8, 10:00 PM UTC

Miranda

+275

DraftKings · Aug 8, 10:00 PM UTC