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Fight Night
Lightweight · Main Card
VS
QuarantillovsFerreira
OverviewMatchupFight ShapeMarket

Overview

Forecast
Ferreira67%
STRONG FAVORITE
FightIQ Read

FightIQ favors Ferreira at 67%.

Current moneyline
Quarantillo +1000Ferreira -2100
Moneyline · DraftKings · Aug 9, 2:00 AM UTC
Market ›
How This Fight Ends
Method forecast not available for this fight yet.
Your pick
Ferreira · R3FightIQ called it

Matchup

RECENT OPPONENT LEVEL
Quality of each fighter's recent competition.
—
—
STRIKING ACCURACY & DEFENSE
Equal-weight comparison of striking accuracy and striking defense.
QuarantilloFerreira
Even
WRESTLING & CONTROL
Comparison based on takedown accuracy and takedown defense.
QuarantilloFerreira
Even
FINISH THREAT
Historical knockout and submission finishing ability.
QuarantilloFerreira
Slight edge: Quarantillo

Fight Shape

Historical UFC lightweight · 3-round fights · 334 fights · past 5 years
How fights like this one have historically played out.
How long comparable fights last
Past 1.5 rounds
63%typical
Past 2.5 rounds
49%typical
Full distance
44%typical
Historical context — not a second forecast.

Market

MARKET FAVORS FERREIRA
Quarantillo
+1000
DraftKings
Ferreira
-2100
DraftKings
9%91%
Normalized market estimate with the bookmaker margin removed. It is context, not a true probability or a recommendation.
FightIQ vs Market
FIGHTIQ FORECAST 67%·MARKET ESTIMATE 91%
The market favors Ferreira more strongly than FightIQ does.
History at Similar Prices
86%
UFC favorites at comparable prices have won 86% historically.
Historical context · Not a prediction for this fight
Odds Over Time
Tracked line · DraftKings
First capturedLatest capturedQuarantillo+140+1000Ferreira-166-2100
Aug 3, 5pm UTC → Aug 9, 2am UTC68 observations
No-vig moneyline shift: 31.3 probability pts toward Ferreira.
QuarantilloFerreira
+1000-2100Aug 3, 5pmAug 9, 2am
Aug 9, 2am UTCQuarantillo +1000Ferreira -2100
Tap or move across the chart to inspect a capture.
Best Available Price
Quarantillo
+1000
DraftKings · Aug 9, 2:00 AM UTC
Ferreira
-176
FanDuel · Aug 9, 2:00 AM UTC