MMA Fight Prediction & Matchup

Overview

Forecast

Nurgozhay58%

SLIGHT FAVORITE

FightIQ Read

FightIQ favors Nurgozhay at 58%.

Current moneyline

Nurgozhay -166Lopes +140

Moneyline · DraftKings · Aug 8, 11:00 PM UTC

Market ›

How This Fight Ends

Method forecast not available for this fight yet.

Your pick

Nurgozhay · R1FightIQ called it

Matchup

RECENT OPPONENT LEVEL

Quality of each fighter's recent competition.

Fight Shape

Historical UFC light heavyweight · 3-round fights · 170 fights · past 5 years

How fights like this one have historically played out.

How long comparable fights last

Past 1.5 rounds

54%typical

Past 2.5 rounds

39%typical

Full distance

35%typical

Historical context — not a second forecast.

Market

MARKET FAVORS NURGOZHAY

Nurgozhay

-166

DraftKings

Lopes

+140

DraftKings

60%40%

Normalized market estimate with the bookmaker margin removed. It is context, not a true probability or a recommendation.

FightIQ vs Market

FIGHTIQ FORECAST 58%·MARKET ESTIMATE 60%

FightIQ and the market are closely aligned on Nurgozhay.

History at Similar Prices

61%

UFC favorites at comparable prices have won 61% historically.

Historical context · Not a prediction for this fight

Odds Over Time

Tracked line · DraftKings

First capturedLatest capturedNurgozhay-142-166Lopes+120+140

Aug 3, 5pm UTC → Aug 8, 11pm UTC65 observations

No-vig moneyline shift: 3.6 probability pts toward Nurgozhay.

NurgozhayLopes

Aug 8, 11pm UTCNurgozhay -166Lopes +140

Tap or move across the chart to inspect a capture.

Best Available Price

Nurgozhay

-151

BetOnline · Aug 8, 11:00 PM UTC

Lopes

+140

DraftKings · Aug 8, 11:00 PM UTC