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Fight Night
Strawweight · Main Card
VS
LemosvsThainara
OverviewMatchupFight ShapeMarket

Overview

Forecast
Thainara77%
HEAVY FAVORITE
FightIQ Read

FightIQ favors Thainara at 77%.

Current moneyline
Lemos +220Thainara -298
Moneyline · DraftKings · Aug 9, 1:00 AM UTC
Market ›
How This Fight Ends
Method forecast not available for this fight yet.
Your pick
Thainara · R3FightIQ called it

Matchup

RECENT OPPONENT LEVEL
Quality of each fighter's recent competition.
—
—
STRIKING ACCURACY & DEFENSE
Equal-weight comparison of striking accuracy and striking defense.
LemosThainara
Even
WRESTLING & CONTROL
Comparison based on takedown accuracy and takedown defense.
LemosThainara
Slight edge: Thainara
FINISH THREAT
Historical knockout and submission finishing ability.
LemosThainara
Slight edge: Lemos

Fight Shape

Historical UFC women's strawweight · 3-round fights · 157 fights · past 5 years
How fights like this one have historically played out.
How long comparable fights last
Past 1.5 rounds
81%typical
Past 2.5 rounds
72%typical
Full distance
67%typical
Historical context — not a second forecast.

Market

MARKET FAVORS THAINARA
Lemos
+220
DraftKings
Thainara
-298
DraftKings
29%71%
Normalized market estimate with the bookmaker margin removed. It is context, not a true probability or a recommendation.
FightIQ vs Market
FIGHTIQ FORECAST 77%·MARKET ESTIMATE 71%
FightIQ favors Thainara more strongly than the market does.
History at Similar Prices
70%
UFC favorites at comparable prices have won 70% historically.
Historical context · Not a prediction for this fight
Odds Over Time
Tracked line · DraftKings
First capturedLatest capturedLemos+195+220Thainara-238-298
Aug 3, 5pm UTC → Aug 9, 1am UTC67 observations
No-vig moneyline shift: 3.1 probability pts toward Thainara.
LemosThainara
+220-298Aug 3, 5pmAug 9, 1am
Aug 9, 1am UTCLemos +220Thainara -298
Tap or move across the chart to inspect a capture.
Best Available Price
Lemos
+1200
BetMGM · Aug 9, 1:00 AM UTC
Thainara
-298
DraftKings · Aug 9, 1:00 AM UTC