FightIQ
Follow FightIQ
FightIQ predictions are for entertainment purposes only. Gamble responsibly — problem gambling helpline: 1-800-522-4700. FightIQ may receive compensation from affiliate partners. This does not influence our predictions or analysis.
About FightIQ·Privacy Policy·Terms of Service
© 2026 FightIQ
HomeEventsFollowingRecord
FightIQ
ScoutAbout FightIQ
Sign In
FightIQ
VS
FightIQ

Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld Overview

Fight Night
Lightweight · 5 rounds · Main Card
FightIQ forecastSalkilld59%SLIGHT FAVORITE
Your pick
Picks are closed · fight complete
Gamrot
VS
Salkilld
OverviewMatchupFight ShapeMarket
FightIQ Read

FightIQ favors Salkilld at 59%.

How This Fight Ends
KO/TKO47%
Submission21%
Decision32%

Historical UFC lightweight · 5-round fights · 27 fights · past 5 years · historical context, not a second forecast

Your prop picksMethod and fight length
Method
Fight length · 2.5 rounds

Personal picks lock at fight start. Exact cutoff is a push.

Matchup

Tale of the Tape
GamrotMetricSalkilld
35Age26
5′10″Height6′0″
70″Reach75″
SouthpawStanceOrthodox
155.5 lbsWeigh-in155.5 lbs

Official weigh-in results.

Striking & Defense

Indicator moves from even toward the fighter with the advantage.

3.29Sig. strikes / min5.16
2.96Absorbed / minLower is better3.24
51%Accuracy57%
60%Defense44%
Wrestling & Control
5.22Takedown avg.7.25
37%Takedown accuracy36%
83%Takedown defense80%
Style History

Style history is temporarily unavailable.

Recent Form

Gamrot

5 recorded bouts shown

  1. LQuillan SalkilldR1 · SUB
  2. WEsteban RibovicsR2 · Submission
  3. LCharles OliveiraR2 · Submission
  4. WLudovit KleinR3 · Decision
  5. LDan HookerR3 · S-DEC

Salkilld

5 recorded bouts shown

  1. WMateusz GamrotR1 · SUB
  2. WBeneil DariushR1 · KO/TKO
  3. WJamie MullarkeyR1 · Submission
  4. WNasrat HaqparastR1 · KO/TKO
  5. WYanal AshmouzR3 · Decision

Strength of Schedule

Longer bar means higher opponent quality.

Gamrot
Checking history…
Salkilld
Checking history…
More Matchup Detail
History & Common OpponentsShared opponents and prior meetings

Beneil Dariush: Gamrot loss, Salkilld win.

Fight Shape

Fight Shape

Historical UFC lightweight · 5-round fights · 27 fights · past 5 years

In these past fights, KO/TKO was the most common ending (47%). Historical context for this matchup, not a prediction.

How Long Comparable Fights Last
Past 1.5 rounds
71%Typical
Past 2.5 rounds
51%Typical
Full distance
32%Typical

Historical context — not a second forecast.

Why this fight may differMatchup-specific context
Salkilld's grappling meets a proven weakness

39% of Salkilld's wins come by submission, and Gamrot has tapped 2 times. One bad scramble decides it.

Market

Odds Over Time
GamrotSalkilld
At event start+110-130
Open+120-142
Event-time · DraftKings
Open · DraftKings · Aug 3, 5:00 PM UTC
MovementThe market moved about 2.1 percentage points toward Gamrot.Market moved about 2.1 points toward Gamrot.61 comparable observations · DraftKings
Tracked line · DraftKings
First capturedLatest capturedGamrot+120+110Salkilld-142-130
Aug 3, 5pm UTC → Aug 8, 8pm UTC60 observations
GamrotSalkilld
+110-130Aug 3, 5pmAug 8, 8pm
Aug 8, 8pm UTCGamrot +110Salkilld -130
Tap or move across the chart to inspect a capture.
FightIQ & market comparison
WinnerSalkilld
FightIQ59%Market54%

FightIQ favors Salkilld more strongly than the market does.

How market probabilities are calculated

Calculated from both fighters’ prices after accounting for the sportsbook’s margin.

History at similar prices55%

UFC fighters at comparable market prices have won 55% historically.

  • 896 UFC fights
  • 1–99% market probability range
  • All UFC weight classes
  • Jan 2023–Aug 2026
Historical context · not a prediction for this fight
Compare sportsbook prices4 sportsbooks
SportsbookGamrotSalkilld
DraftKings+110-130
FanDuel+122-144
BetMGM+115-140
BetOnline+110-130