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Fight Night
Heavyweight · Prelims
VS
AsplundvsPat
OverviewMatchupFight ShapeMarket

Overview

Forecast
Asplund67%
STRONG FAVORITE
FightIQ Read

FightIQ favors Asplund at 67%.

Current moneyline
Asplund -1950Pat +950
Moneyline · DraftKings · Aug 9, 12:00 AM UTC
Market ›
How This Fight Ends
Method forecast not available for this fight yet.
Your pick
Asplund · R3FightIQ called it

Matchup

RECENT OPPONENT LEVEL
Quality of each fighter's recent competition.
—
—
STRIKING ACCURACY & DEFENSE
Equal-weight comparison of striking accuracy and striking defense.
AsplundPat
Even
WRESTLING & CONTROL
Comparison based on takedown accuracy and takedown defense.
AsplundPat
Even
FINISH THREAT
Historical knockout and submission finishing ability.
AsplundPat
Slight edge: Asplund

Fight Shape

Historical UFC heavyweight · 3-round fights · 160 fights · past 5 years
How fights like this one have historically played out.
How long comparable fights last
Past 1.5 rounds
58%typical
Past 2.5 rounds
47%typical
Full distance
44%typical
Historical context — not a second forecast.

Market

MARKET FAVORS ASPLUND
Asplund
-1950
DraftKings
Pat
+950
DraftKings
91%9%
Normalized market estimate with the bookmaker margin removed. It is context, not a true probability or a recommendation.
FightIQ vs Market
FIGHTIQ FORECAST 67%·MARKET ESTIMATE 91%
The market favors Asplund more strongly than FightIQ does.
History at Similar Prices
86%
UFC favorites at comparable prices have won 86% historically.
Historical context · Not a prediction for this fight
Odds Over Time
Tracked line · DraftKings
First capturedLatest capturedAsplund-270-1950Pat+220+950
Aug 3, 5pm UTC → Aug 9, 12am UTC66 observations
No-vig moneyline shift: 20.9 probability pts toward Asplund.
AsplundPat
-1950+950Aug 3, 5pmAug 9, 12am
Aug 9, 12am UTCAsplund -1950Pat +950
Tap or move across the chart to inspect a capture.
Best Available Price
Asplund
-115
BetMGM · Aug 9, 12:00 AM UTC
Pat
+950
DraftKings · Aug 9, 12:00 AM UTC