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Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres Overview

Fight Night
Lightweight · 5 rounds · Main Card
FightIQ forecastTorres58%SLIGHT FAVORITE
Your pick
Picks are closed · fight complete
Fiziev
VS
Torres
OverviewMatchupFight ShapeMarket
FightIQ Read

FightIQ favors Torres at 58%.

How This Fight Ends
KO/TKO46%
Submission22%
Decision32%

Historical UFC lightweight · 5-round fights · 28 fights · past 5 years · historical context, not a second forecast

Your prop picksMethod and fight length
Method
Fight length · 2.5 rounds

Personal picks lock at fight start. Exact cutoff is a push.

Matchup

Tale of the Tape
FizievMetricTorres
33Age31
5′8″Height5′10″
71″Reach73″
SwitchStanceSwitch
156 lbsWeigh-in156 lbs

Official weigh-in results.

Striking & Defense

Indicator moves from even toward the fighter with the advantage.

4.71Sig. strikes / min7.29
4.84Absorbed / minLower is better4.08
52%Accuracy59%
49%Defense54%
Wrestling & Control
0.83Takedown avg.1.72
71%Takedown accuracy66%
90%Takedown defense77%
Style History

Style history is temporarily unavailable.

Recent Form

Fiziev

5 recorded bouts shown

  1. WManuel TorresR2 · KO/TKO
  2. LMauricio RuffyR2 · KO/TKO
  3. WIgnacio BahamondesR3 · Decision
  4. LJustin GaethjeR3 · Decision
  5. LMateusz GamrotR2 · KO/TKO

Torres

5 recorded bouts shown

  1. LRafael FizievR2 · KO/TKO
  2. WGrant DawsonR1 · KO/TKO
  3. WDrew DoberR1 · KO/TKO
  4. LIgnacio BahamondesR1 · KO/TKO
  5. WChris DuncanR1 · SUB

Strength of Schedule

Longer bar means higher opponent quality.

Fiziev
Checking history…
Torres
Checking history…
More Matchup Detail
History & Common OpponentsShared opponents and prior meetings

Ignacio Bahamondes: Fiziev win, Torres loss.

Fight Shape

Fight Shape

Historical UFC lightweight · 5-round fights · 28 fights · past 5 years

In these past fights, KO/TKO was the most common ending (46%). Historical context for this matchup, not a prediction.

How Long Comparable Fights Last
Past 1.5 rounds
71%Typical
Past 2.5 rounds
51%Typical
Full distance
32%Typical

Historical context — not a second forecast.

Why this fight may differMatchup-specific context
Fiziev's power meets a proven weakness

62% of Fiziev's wins come by knockout, and Torres has been stopped by strikes 2 times. That is the clearest route to an early night.

Torres's power meets a proven weakness

53% of Torres's wins come by knockout, and Fiziev has been stopped by strikes 3 times. That is the clearest route to an early night.

Market

Odds over time
FizievTorres
At event start-108-112
Open-135+114
Event-time · DraftKings
Open · DraftKings · Jun 11, 5:00 PM UTC
MovementThe market moved about 5.6 percentage points toward Torres.Market moved about 5.6 points toward Torres.2 comparable observations · DraftKings
Fiziev-135 → -108
Torres+114 → -112
Two displayed observations only. No intermediate prices are inferred.
FightIQ & market comparison
WinnerTorres
FightIQ58%Market50%

FightIQ favors Torres more strongly than the market does.

How market probabilities are calculated

Calculated from both fighters’ prices after accounting for the sportsbook’s margin.

History at similar prices51%

UFC fighters at comparable market prices have won 51% historically.

  • 896 UFC fights
  • 1–99% market probability range
  • All UFC weight classes
  • Jan 2023–Aug 2026
Historical context · not a prediction for this fight
Compare sportsbook prices3 sportsbooks
SportsbookFizievTorres
DraftKings-108-112
FanDuel-108-108
BetMGM-105-115