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Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov Overview

Fight Night
Light Heavyweight · 5 rounds · Main Card
FightIQ forecastAnkalaev79%HEAVY FAVORITE
Your pick
Picks are closed · fight complete
Ankalaev
VS
Guskov
OverviewMatchupFight ShapeMarket
FightIQ Read

FightIQ favors Ankalaev at 79%.

How This Fight Ends
KO/TKO49%
Submission16%
Decision35%

Historical UFC light heavyweight · 5-round fights · 22 fights · past 5 years · historical context, not a second forecast

Your prop picksMethod and fight length
Method
Fight length · 2.5 rounds

Personal picks lock at fight start. Exact cutoff is a push.

Matchup

Tale of the Tape
AnkalaevMetricGuskov
34Age33
6′3″Height6′3″
75″Reach76″
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
205.5 lbsWeigh-in205.5 lbs

Official weigh-in results.

Striking & Defense

Indicator moves from even toward the fighter with the advantage.

3.65Sig. strikes / min4.57
2.59Absorbed / minLower is better4.09
52%Accuracy55%
56%Defense44%
Wrestling & Control
0.79Takedown avg.0.00
22%Takedown accuracy0%
87%Takedown defense57%
Style History

Style history is temporarily unavailable.

Recent Form

Ankalaev

5 recorded bouts shown

  1. WBogdan GuskovR5 · KO/TKO
  2. LAlex PereiraR1 · KO/TKO
  3. WAlex PereiraR5 · Decision
  4. WAleksandar RakicR3 · Decision
  5. WJohnny WalkerR2 · KO/TKO

Guskov

5 recorded bouts shown

  1. LMagomed AnkalaevR5 · KO/TKO
  2. DJan BlachowiczM-DEC
  3. WNikita KrylovR1 · KO/TKO
  4. WBilly ElekanaR2 · Submission
  5. WRyan SpannR2 · KO/TKO

Strength of Schedule

Longer bar means higher opponent quality.

Ankalaev
Checking history…
Guskov
Checking history…
More Matchup Detail
History & Common OpponentsShared opponents and prior meetings

Nikita Krylov: Ankalaev win, Guskov win.

Volkan Oezdemir: Ankalaev win, Guskov loss.

Fight Shape

Fight Shape

Historical UFC light heavyweight · 5-round fights · 22 fights · past 5 years

In these past fights, KO/TKO was the most common ending (49%). Historical context for this matchup, not a prediction.

How Long Comparable Fights Last
Past 1.5 rounds
72%Typical
Past 2.5 rounds
53%Typical
Full distance
36%Typical

Historical context — not a second forecast.

Why this fight may differMatchup-specific context
Ankalaev's power meets a proven weakness

52% of Ankalaev's wins come by knockout, and Guskov has been stopped by strikes 2 times. That is the clearest route to an early night.

Market

Odds Over Time
AnkalaevGuskov
At event start-535+400
Open-550+410
Event-time · DraftKings
Open · DraftKings · Jul 22, 2:26 PM UTC
MovementThe market moved about 0.4 percentage points toward Guskov.Market moved about 0.4 points toward Guskov.7 comparable observations · DraftKings
Tracked line · DraftKings
First capturedLatest capturedAnkalaev-550-535Guskov+410+400
Jul 22, 4pm UTC → Jul 24, 5pm UTC5 observations
AnkalaevGuskov
-535+400Jul 22, 4pmJul 24, 5pm
Jul 24, 5pm UTCAnkalaev -535Guskov +400
Tap or move across the chart to inspect a capture.
FightIQ & market comparison
WinnerAnkalaev
FightIQ79%Market81%

FightIQ and the market are closely aligned on Ankalaev.

How market probabilities are calculated

Calculated from both fighters’ prices after accounting for the sportsbook’s margin.

History at similar prices79%

UFC fighters at comparable market prices have won 79% historically.

  • 896 UFC fights
  • 1–99% market probability range
  • All UFC weight classes
  • Jan 2023–Aug 2026
Historical context · not a prediction for this fight
Compare sportsbook prices3 sportsbooks
SportsbookAnkalaevGuskov
DraftKings-535+400
FanDuel-650+440
BetMGM-600+425