FightIQ favors Allen at 53%. Brendan Allen’s recent wins over Edmen Shahbazyan, Reinier de Ridder and Marvin Vettori show he can win long fights or force a late stoppage, but Christian Leroy Duncan enters off decisions over Jared Cannonier and Roman Dolidze.
FightIQ model whole-fight probabilities • not fighter-specific
Personal picks lock at fight start. Exact cutoff is a push.
| Allen | Metric | Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 31 |
| 6′2″ | Height | 6′2″ |
| 75″ | Reach | 79″ |
| Orthodox | Stance | Switch |
| 186 lbs | Weigh-in | 185 lbs |
Official weigh-in results.
Indicator moves from even toward the fighter with the advantage.
Style history is temporarily unavailable.
5 recorded bouts shown
5 recorded bouts shown
Longer bar means higher opponent quality.
Eryk Anders: Allen loss, Duncan win.
Historical UFC middleweight · 5-round fights · 35 fights · past 5 years
This projection is close to the normal fight in this division.
Reaching the cards is about normal here.
Historical context — not a second forecast.
67% of Duncan's wins come by knockout, and Allen has been stopped by strikes 2 times. That is the clearest route to an early night.
Allen has 7 decision wins and Duncan has 4. Neither needs a finish to win a fight.
FightIQ and the market both see a close fight.
Calculated from both fighters’ prices after accounting for the sportsbook’s margin.
UFC fighters at comparable market prices have won 51% historically.
