FightIQ favors Van at 59%. Joshua Van is the forecasted side, with the current method distribution pointing most strongly toward a decision outcome while still leaving Alexandre Pantoja credible routes to alter the matchup.
FightIQ whole-fight probabilities • not fighter-specific
Personal picks lock at fight start. Exact cutoff is a push.
| Van | Metric | Pantoja |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Age | 36 |
| 5′5″ | Height | 5′5″ |
| 65″ | Reach | 67″ |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 125 lbs | Weigh-in | 125 lbs |
Official weigh-in results.
Indicator moves from even toward the fighter with the advantage.
Style history is temporarily unavailable.
5 recorded bouts shown
5 recorded bouts shown
Longer bar means higher opponent quality.
Van won the prior meeting by U-DEC.
Historical UFC flyweight · 5-round fights · 22 fights · past 5 years
This projects to reach the scorecards more often than a normal fight in this division.
Reaching the cards is much higher than normal here.
Historical context — not a second forecast.
Van has 6 decision wins and Pantoja has 10. Neither needs a finish to win a fight.
FightIQ and the market are closely aligned on Van.
This is context, not a recommendation.
Calculated from both fighters’ prices after accounting for the sportsbook’s margin.
UFC fighters at comparable market prices have won 61% historically.
