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UFC 331
Heavyweight · Prelims
VS
TuivasavsDespaigne
OverviewMatchupFight ShapeMarket

Overview

Forecast
Despaigne72%
STRONG FAVORITE
KO/TKO56%
Likely fight outcome
FightIQ Read

FightIQ favors Despaigne at 72%.

Current moneyline
Tuivasa +440Despaigne -600
Moneyline · DraftKings · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC
Market ›
How This Fight Ends
FIGHTIQ
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
12%
Decision
32%
FIGHTIQ METHOD FORECAST
Fighter and matchup data, informed by historical fight patterns.
Your pick
Optional prop picksTrack your own calls
Method
Fight length · 1.5 rounds

Personal picks lock at fight start. Exact cutoff is a push.

Matchup

RECENT OPPONENT LEVEL
Quality of each fighter's recent competition.
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STRIKING ACCURACY & DEFENSE
Equal-weight comparison of striking accuracy and striking defense.
TuivasaDespaigne
Slight edge: Despaigne
WRESTLING & CONTROL
Comparison based on takedown accuracy and takedown defense.
TuivasaDespaigne
Slight edge: Despaigne
FINISH THREAT
Historical knockout and submission finishing ability.
TuivasaDespaigne
Even

Fight Shape

Historical UFC heavyweight · 3-round fights · 165 fights · past 5 years
KO DANGER. The knockout risk here runs clearly above the divisional norm.
How long comparable fights last
Past 1.5 rounds
58%typical
Past 2.5 rounds
47%typical
Full distance
32%FightIQ
44%typical
Reaching the cards is lower than normal here.
Historical context — not a second forecast.

Market

MARKET FAVORS DESPAIGNE
Tuivasa
+440
DraftKings
Despaigne
-600
DraftKings
18%82%
Normalized market estimate with the bookmaker margin removed. It is context, not a true probability or a recommendation.
FightIQ vs Market
FIGHTIQ FORECAST 72%·MARKET ESTIMATE 82%
The market favors Despaigne more strongly than FightIQ does.
Method disagreement
FightIQ sees KO/TKO 56%; the no-vig market is 79%.
History at Similar Prices
80%
UFC favorites at comparable prices have won 80% historically.
Historical context · Not a prediction for this fight
Odds Over Time
Tracked line · DraftKings
First capturedLatest capturedTuivasa+425+440Despaigne-575-600
Aug 28, 5pm UTC → Sep 18, 1pm UTC36 observations
No-vig moneyline shift: 0.5 probability pts toward Despaigne.
TuivasaDespaigne
+440-600Aug 28, 5pmSep 18, 1pm
Sep 18, 1pm UTCTuivasa +440Despaigne -600
Tap or move across the chart to inspect a capture.
Best Available Price
Tuivasa
+475
Sportsbook market · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC
Despaigne
-600
DraftKings · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC