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UFC 331
Lightweight · Main Card
VS
TsarukyanvsRuffy
OverviewMatchupFight ShapeMarket

Overview

Forecast
Tsarukyan74%
STRONG FAVORITE
KO/TKO48%
Likely fight outcome
FightIQ Read

FightIQ favors Tsarukyan at 74%.

Current moneyline
Tsarukyan -305Ruffy +245
Moneyline · DraftKings · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC
Market ›
How This Fight Ends
FIGHTIQ
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
12%
Decision
40%
FIGHTIQ METHOD FORECAST
Fighter and matchup data, informed by historical fight patterns.
Your pick
Optional prop picksTrack your own calls
Method
Fight length · 2.5 rounds

Personal picks lock at fight start. Exact cutoff is a push.

Matchup

RECENT OPPONENT LEVEL
Quality of each fighter's recent competition.
—
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STRIKING ACCURACY & DEFENSE
Equal-weight comparison of striking accuracy and striking defense.
TsarukyanRuffy
Slight edge: Ruffy
WRESTLING & CONTROL
Comparison based on takedown accuracy and takedown defense.
TsarukyanRuffy
Slight edge: Tsarukyan
FINISH THREAT
Historical knockout and submission finishing ability.
TsarukyanRuffy
Moderate edge: Ruffy

Fight Shape

Historical UFC · 5-round fights · 219 fights · past 5 years
PRETTY TYPICAL. This projection is close to the historical UFC five-round baseline.
How long comparable fights last
Past 1.5 rounds
75%typical
Past 2.5 rounds
59%typical
Full distance
40%FightIQ
42%typical
Reaching the cards is about normal here.
Historical context — not a second forecast.

Market

MARKET FAVORS TSARUKYAN
Tsarukyan
-305
DraftKings
Ruffy
+245
DraftKings
72%28%
Normalized market estimate with the bookmaker margin removed. It is context, not a true probability or a recommendation.
FightIQ vs Market
FIGHTIQ FORECAST 74%·MARKET ESTIMATE 72%
FightIQ and the market are closely aligned on Tsarukyan.
Method disagreement
FightIQ sees Submission 12%; the no-vig market is 29%.
History at Similar Prices
72%
UFC favorites at comparable prices have won 72% historically.
Historical context · Not a prediction for this fight
Odds Over Time
Tracked line · DraftKings
First capturedLatest capturedTsarukyan-375-305Ruffy+295+245
Aug 28, 5pm UTC → Sep 18, 1pm UTC36 observations
No-vig moneyline shift: 3.5 probability pts toward Ruffy.
TsarukyanRuffy
-305+245Aug 28, 5pmSep 18, 1pm
Sep 18, 1pm UTCTsarukyan -305Ruffy +245
Tap or move across the chart to inspect a capture.
Best Available Price
Tsarukyan
-305
DraftKings · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC
Ruffy
+275
Sportsbook market · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC