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UFC 331
Heavyweight · Main Card
VS
StevesonvsSharaf
OverviewMatchupFight ShapeMarket

Overview

Forecast
Steveson88%
HEAVY FAVORITE
KO/TKO66%
Likely fight outcome
FightIQ Read

FightIQ favors Steveson at 88%.

Current moneyline
Steveson -2100Sharaf +1100
Moneyline · DraftKings · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC
Market ›
How This Fight Ends
FIGHTIQ
KO/TKO
66%
Submission
11%
Decision
23%
FIGHTIQ METHOD FORECAST
Fighter and matchup data, informed by historical fight patterns.
Your pick
Optional prop picksTrack your own calls
Method
Fight length · 1.5 rounds

Personal picks lock at fight start. Exact cutoff is a push.

Matchup

RECENT OPPONENT LEVEL
Quality of each fighter's recent competition.
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STRIKING ACCURACY & DEFENSE
Equal-weight comparison of striking accuracy and striking defense.
StevesonSharaf
Moderate edge: Steveson
WRESTLING & CONTROL
Comparison based on takedown accuracy and takedown defense.
StevesonSharaf
Clear edge: Sharaf
FINISH THREAT
Historical knockout and submission finishing ability.
StevesonSharaf
Even

Fight Shape

Historical UFC heavyweight · 3-round fights · 165 fights · past 5 years
KO DANGER. The knockout risk here runs clearly above the divisional norm.
How long comparable fights last
Past 1.5 rounds
58%typical
Past 2.5 rounds
47%typical
Full distance
23%FightIQ
44%typical
Reaching the cards is much lower than normal here.
Historical context — not a second forecast.

Market

MARKET FAVORS STEVESON
Steveson
-2100
DraftKings
Sharaf
+1100
DraftKings
92%8%
Normalized market estimate with the bookmaker margin removed. It is context, not a true probability or a recommendation.
FightIQ vs Market
FIGHTIQ FORECAST 88%·MARKET ESTIMATE 92%
The market favors Steveson more strongly than FightIQ does.
Method disagreement
FightIQ sees Decision 23%; the no-vig market is 7%.
History at Similar Prices
87%
UFC favorites at comparable prices have won 87% historically.
Historical context · Not a prediction for this fight
Odds Over Time
Tracked line · DraftKings
First capturedLatest capturedSteveson-1200-2100Sharaf+750+1100
Aug 28, 5pm UTC → Sep 18, 1pm UTC36 observations
No-vig moneyline shift: 3.3 probability pts toward Steveson.
StevesonSharaf
-2100+1100Aug 28, 5pmSep 18, 1pm
Sep 18, 1pm UTCSteveson -2100Sharaf +1100
Tap or move across the chart to inspect a capture.
Best Available Price
Steveson
-2100
DraftKings · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC
Sharaf
+1248
BetOnline · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC