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UFC 331
Middleweight · Early Prelims
VS
ShahbazyanvsFerreira
OverviewMatchupFight ShapeMarket

Overview

Forecast
Shahbazyan61%
FAVORITE
KO/TKO63%
Likely fight outcome
FightIQ Read

FightIQ favors Shahbazyan at 61%.

Current moneyline
Shahbazyan -180Ferreira +150
Moneyline · DraftKings · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC
Market ›
How This Fight Ends
FIGHTIQ
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
12%
Decision
25%
FIGHTIQ METHOD FORECAST
Fighter and matchup data, informed by historical fight patterns.
Your pick
Optional prop picksTrack your own calls
Method
Fight length · 1.5 rounds

Personal picks lock at fight start. Exact cutoff is a push.

Matchup

RECENT OPPONENT LEVEL
Quality of each fighter's recent competition.
—
—
STRIKING ACCURACY & DEFENSE
Equal-weight comparison of striking accuracy and striking defense.
ShahbazyanFerreira
Even
WRESTLING & CONTROL
Comparison based on takedown accuracy and takedown defense.
ShahbazyanFerreira
Moderate edge: Shahbazyan
FINISH THREAT
Historical knockout and submission finishing ability.
ShahbazyanFerreira
Even

Fight Shape

Historical UFC middleweight · 3-round fights · 305 fights · past 5 years
KO DANGER. The knockout risk here runs clearly above the divisional norm.
How long comparable fights last
Past 1.5 rounds
58%typical
Past 2.5 rounds
42%typical
Full distance
26%FightIQ
38%typical
Reaching the cards is lower than normal here.
Historical context — not a second forecast.

Market

MARKET FAVORS SHAHBAZYAN
Shahbazyan
-180
DraftKings
Ferreira
+150
DraftKings
62%38%
Normalized market estimate with the bookmaker margin removed. It is context, not a true probability or a recommendation.
FightIQ vs Market
FIGHTIQ FORECAST 61%·MARKET ESTIMATE 62%
FightIQ and the market are closely aligned on Shahbazyan.
Method disagreement
FightIQ sees KO/TKO 63%; the no-vig market is 52%.
History at Similar Prices
63%
UFC favorites at comparable prices have won 63% historically.
Historical context · Not a prediction for this fight
Odds Over Time
Tracked line · DraftKings
First capturedLatest capturedShahbazyan-155-180Ferreira+130+150
Sep 3, 5pm UTC → Sep 18, 1pm UTC29 observations
No-vig moneyline shift: 3.3 probability pts toward Shahbazyan.
ShahbazyanFerreira
-180+150Sep 3, 5pmSep 18, 1pm
Sep 18, 1pm UTCShahbazyan -180Ferreira +150
Tap or move across the chart to inspect a capture.
Best Available Price
Shahbazyan
-175
BetMGM · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC
Ferreira
+153
Sportsbook market · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC