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UFC 331
Light Heavyweight · Main Card
VS
MenifieldvsBaraniewski
OverviewMatchupFight ShapeMarket

Overview

Forecast
Baraniewski68%
STRONG FAVORITE
KO/TKO52%
Likely fight outcome
FightIQ Read

FightIQ favors Baraniewski at 68%.

Current moneyline
Menifield +205Baraniewski -250
Moneyline · DraftKings · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC
Market ›
How This Fight Ends
FIGHTIQ
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
14%
Decision
34%
FIGHTIQ METHOD FORECAST
Fighter and matchup data, informed by historical fight patterns.
Your pick
Optional prop picksTrack your own calls
Method
Fight length · 1.5 rounds

Personal picks lock at fight start. Exact cutoff is a push.

Matchup

RECENT OPPONENT LEVEL
Quality of each fighter's recent competition.
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STRIKING ACCURACY & DEFENSE
Equal-weight comparison of striking accuracy and striking defense.
MenifieldBaraniewski
Even
WRESTLING & CONTROL
Comparison based on takedown accuracy and takedown defense.
MenifieldBaraniewski
Even
FINISH THREAT
Historical knockout and submission finishing ability.
MenifieldBaraniewski
Slight edge: Baraniewski

Fight Shape

Historical UFC light heavyweight · 3-round fights · 168 fights · past 5 years
PRETTY TYPICAL. This projection is close to the normal fight in this division.
How long comparable fights last
Past 1.5 rounds
54%typical
Past 2.5 rounds
38%typical
Full distance
34%FightIQ
34%typical
Reaching the cards is about normal here.
Historical context — not a second forecast.

Market

MARKET FAVORS BARANIEWSKI
Menifield
+205
DraftKings
Baraniewski
-250
DraftKings
31%69%
Normalized market estimate with the bookmaker margin removed. It is context, not a true probability or a recommendation.
FightIQ vs Market
FIGHTIQ FORECAST 68%·MARKET ESTIMATE 69%
FightIQ and the market are closely aligned on Baraniewski.
Method disagreement
FightIQ sees Decision 34%; the no-vig market is 16%.
History at Similar Prices
69%
UFC favorites at comparable prices have won 69% historically.
Historical context · Not a prediction for this fight
Odds Over Time
Tracked line · DraftKings
First capturedLatest capturedMenifield+190+205Baraniewski-230-250
Sep 3, 5pm UTC → Sep 18, 1pm UTC29 observations
No-vig moneyline shift: 1.6 probability pts toward Baraniewski.
MenifieldBaraniewski
+205-250Sep 3, 5pmSep 18, 1pm
Sep 18, 1pm UTCMenifield +205Baraniewski -250
Tap or move across the chart to inspect a capture.
Best Available Price
Menifield
+215
Sportsbook market · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC
Baraniewski
-240
BetOnline · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC