MMA Fight Prediction & Matchup

Overview

Forecast

Gandra80%

HEAVY FAVORITE

KO/TKO57%

Likely fight outcome

FightIQ Read

FightIQ favors Gandra at 80%.

Current moneyline

Gandra -550Diaz +410

Moneyline · DraftKings · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC

Market ›

How This Fight Ends

KO/TKO: 57%
Submission: 15%
Decision: 28%

FIGHTIQ METHOD FORECAST

Fighter and matchup data, informed by historical fight patterns.

Your pick

Optional prop picksTrack your own calls

Method

Fight length · 1.5 rounds

Personal picks lock at fight start. Exact cutoff is a push.

Matchup

RECENT OPPONENT LEVEL

Quality of each fighter's recent competition.

Fight Shape

Historical UFC middleweight · 3-round fights · 305 fights · past 5 years

KO DANGER. The knockout risk here runs clearly above the divisional norm.

How long comparable fights last

Past 1.5 rounds

58%typical

Past 2.5 rounds

42%typical

Full distance

28%FightIQ

38%typical

Reaching the cards is lower than normal here.

Historical context — not a second forecast.

Market

MARKET FAVORS GANDRA

Gandra

-550

DraftKings

Diaz

+410

DraftKings

81%19%

Normalized market estimate with the bookmaker margin removed. It is context, not a true probability or a recommendation.

FightIQ vs Market

FIGHTIQ FORECAST 80%·MARKET ESTIMATE 81%

FightIQ and the market are closely aligned on Gandra.

Method disagreement

FightIQ sees KO/TKO 57%; the no-vig market is 75%.

History at Similar Prices

79%

UFC favorites at comparable prices have won 79% historically.

Historical context · Not a prediction for this fight

Odds Over Time

Tracked line · DraftKings

First capturedLatest capturedGandra-455-550Diaz+350+410

Sep 14, 5pm UTC → Sep 18, 1pm UTC19 observations

No-vig moneyline shift: 2.5 probability pts toward Gandra.

GandraDiaz

Sep 18, 1pm UTCGandra -550Diaz +410

Tap or move across the chart to inspect a capture.

Best Available Price

Gandra

-525

BetOnline · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC

Diaz

+425

Sportsbook market · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC