MMA Fight Prediction & Matchup

Overview

Forecast

Choi65%

STRONG FAVORITE

DECISION48%

Likely fight outcome

FightIQ Read

FightIQ favors Choi at 65%.

Current moneyline

Freire +220Choi -270

Moneyline · DraftKings · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC

Market ›

How This Fight Ends

KO/TKO: 38%
Submission: 14%
Decision: 48%

FIGHTIQ METHOD FORECAST

Fighter and matchup data, informed by historical fight patterns.

Your pick

Optional prop picksTrack your own calls

Method

Fight length · 1.5 rounds

Personal picks lock at fight start. Exact cutoff is a push.

Matchup

RECENT OPPONENT LEVEL

Quality of each fighter's recent competition.

Fight Shape

Historical UFC featherweight · 3-round fights · 289 fights · past 5 years

PRETTY TYPICAL. This projection is close to the normal fight in this division.

How long comparable fights last

Past 1.5 rounds

65%typical

Past 2.5 rounds

51%typical

Full distance

48%FightIQ

48%typical

Reaching the cards is about normal here.

Historical context — not a second forecast.

Market

MARKET FAVORS CHOI

Freire

+220

DraftKings

Choi

-270

DraftKings

30%70%

Normalized market estimate with the bookmaker margin removed. It is context, not a true probability or a recommendation.

FightIQ vs Market

FIGHTIQ FORECAST 65%·MARKET ESTIMATE 70%

The market favors Choi more strongly than FightIQ does.

History at Similar Prices

70%

UFC favorites at comparable prices have won 70% historically.

Historical context · Not a prediction for this fight

Odds Over Time

Tracked line · DraftKings

First capturedLatest capturedFreire+185+220Choi-225-270

Sep 5, 5pm UTC → Sep 18, 1pm UTC28 observations

No-vig moneyline shift: 3.7 probability pts toward Choi.

FreireChoi

Sep 18, 1pm UTCFreire +220Choi -270

Tap or move across the chart to inspect a capture.

Best Available Price

Freire

+225

FanDuel · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC

Choi

-265

BetOnline · Sep 18, 1:00 PM UTC