The AI sees a clear edge here, and it comes down to one number: 80% takedown defense is good, but it's not the 90-plus you need against a wrestler of this caliber, and Garry's own takedown offense at 31% gives him no way to punish the entries. Makhachev's 56% takedown accuracy against a defense that leaks means he'll get Garry to the mat, and once there, 13 submission wins and zero sub or decision losses tell you how that story ends.