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No forecast published for this fight yet.
Matchup
RECENT OPPONENT LEVEL
Quality of each fighter's recent competition.
STRIKING
Volume, accuracy, defense, and ability to land cleanly.
StevesonEllison
FINISH THREAT
Historical knockout and submission finishing ability.
StevesonEllison
HOW THEY USUALLY WIN
Verified win-method counts and finish rate
KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Steveson
100% finish rate · 1.0 avg round
Ellison
100% finish rate · 1.0 avg round
Fight Shape
This fight vs typical
HISTORICAL UFC 3-ROUND BASELINE
How fights like this one have historically played out.
How long comparable fights last
Past 1.5 rounds
59%typical
Past 2.5 rounds
48%typical
Historical context — not a second forecast.
Market
MARKET FAVORS STEVESON
89%11%
Normalized to remove bookmaker margin.
Line Movement
Steveson-3200→-1200
Ellison+1400→+750
SHARP move · toward Ellison
The line moved toward Ellison since opening.
Best Available Price
