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Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway Overview

McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Welterweight · 5 rounds · Main Card
FightIQ forecastHolloway79%HEAVY FAVORITE
Your pick
Picks are closed · fight complete
McGregor
VS
Holloway
OverviewMatchupFight ShapeMarket
FightIQ Read

FightIQ favors Holloway at 79%.

How This Fight Ends
KO/TKO40%
Submission12%
Decision48%

Historical UFC welterweight · 5-round fights · 25 fights · past 5 years · historical context, not a second forecast

Your prop picksMethod and fight length
Method
Fight length · 2.5 rounds

Personal picks lock at fight start. Exact cutoff is a push.

Matchup

Tale of the Tape
McGregorMetricHolloway
37Age34
5′9″Height5′11″
74″Reach69″
SouthpawStanceOrthodox
170.5 lbsWeigh-in170 lbs

Official weigh-in results.

Striking & Defense

Indicator moves from even toward the fighter with the advantage.

5.32Sig. strikes / min6.91
4.66Absorbed / minLower is better4.61
49%Accuracy48%
54%Defense58%
Wrestling & Control
0.67Takedown avg.0.23
55%Takedown accuracy53%
66%Takedown defense81%
Style History

Style history is temporarily unavailable.

Recent Form

McGregor

5 recorded bouts shown

  1. LMax HollowayR1 · KO/TKO
  2. LDustin PoirierR1 · KO/TKO
  3. LDustin PoirierR2 · KO/TKO
  4. WDonald CerroneR1 · KO/TKO
  5. LKhabib NurmagomedovR4 · Submission

Holloway

5 recorded bouts shown

  1. WConor McGregorR1 · KO/TKO
  2. LCharles OliveiraR5 · Decision
  3. WDustin PoirierR5 · Decision
  4. LIlia TopuriaR3 · KO/TKO
  5. WJustin GaethjeR5 · KO/TKO

Strength of Schedule

Longer bar means higher opponent quality.

McGregor
Checking history…
Holloway
Checking history…
More Matchup Detail
History & Common OpponentsShared opponents and prior meetings

Series: McGregor 1–0 Holloway.

2013-08-17: McGregor won · Decision · R3.

Fight Shape

Fight Shape

Historical UFC welterweight · 5-round fights · 25 fights · past 5 years

In these past fights, decision was the most common ending (48%). Historical context for this matchup, not a prediction.

How Long Comparable Fights Last
Past 1.5 rounds
80%Typical
Past 2.5 rounds
68%Typical
Full distance
48%Typical

Historical context — not a second forecast.

Why this fight may differMatchup-specific context
Holloway's power meets a proven weakness

46% of Holloway's wins come by knockout, and McGregor has been stopped by strikes 3 times. That is the clearest route to an early night.

Market

Odds over time
McGregorHolloway
At event start+185-225
First tracked+185-225
Event-time · DraftKings
First tracked · DraftKings · Jul 10, 5:00 PM UTC
MovementNot enough comparable history yet
McGregor+185 → +185
Holloway-225 → -225
Two displayed observations only. No intermediate prices are inferred.
FightIQ & market comparison
WinnerHolloway
FightIQ79%Market66%

FightIQ favors Holloway more strongly than the market does.

How market probabilities are calculated

Calculated from both fighters’ prices after accounting for the sportsbook’s margin.

History at similar prices67%

UFC fighters at comparable market prices have won 67% historically.

  • 896 UFC fights
  • 1–99% market probability range
  • All UFC weight classes
  • Jan 2023–Aug 2026
Historical context · not a prediction for this fight
Compare sportsbook prices3 sportsbooks
SportsbookMcGregorHolloway
DraftKings+185-225
FanDuel+180-225
BetMGM+190-235