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UFC 327
Lightweight · Main Card
Mederos
›
12–1–1
D
W
W
W
W
VS
›
Padilla
18–6–1
D
W
W
W
W
Mederos
vs
Padilla
Overview
Matchup
Fight Shape
Market
Overview
No forecast published for this fight yet.
How This Fight Ends
Method forecast not available for this fight yet.
Your pick
Mederos
Padilla
Optional prop picks
Track your own calls
Method
KO/TKO
Submission
Decision
Fight length · 1.5 rounds
Over 1.5 rounds
Under 1.5 rounds
Personal picks lock at fight start. Exact cutoff is a push.
Matchup
RECENT OPPONENT LEVEL
Quality of each fighter's recent competition.
—
—
STRIKING ACCURACY & DEFENSE
Equal-weight comparison of striking accuracy and striking defense.
Mederos
Padilla
Even
WRESTLING & CONTROL
Comparison based on takedown accuracy and takedown defense.
Mederos
Padilla
Slight edge: Padilla
FINISH THREAT
Historical knockout and submission finishing ability.
Mederos
Padilla
Moderate edge: Padilla
TALE OF THE TAPE
STRIKING STATS
TAKEDOWN STATS
RECENT FIGHT HISTORY
Last five verified results per fighter
HISTORY & COMMON OPPONENTS
Fight Shape
Historical UFC lightweight · 3-round fights · 330 fights · past 5 years
How fights like this one have historically played out.
How long comparable fights last
Past 1.5 rounds
65%
typical
Past 2.5 rounds
50%
typical
Full distance
46%
typical
Historical context — not a second forecast.
Market
MARKET FAVORS
PADILLA
Mederos
+124
DraftKings
Padilla
-148
DraftKings
43%
57%
Normalized market estimate with the bookmaker margin removed. It is context, not a true probability or a recommendation.
History at Similar Prices
41%
UFC favorites at comparable prices have won 41% historically.
Historical context · Not a prediction for this fight
Line Movement
Mederos
+124
→
+124
Padilla
-148
→
-148
No material move
The line has barely moved since opening.
Current Price
Mederos
+124
DraftKings · Apr 13, 12:09 AM UTC
Padilla
-148
DraftKings · Apr 13, 12:09 AM UTC
Only one book has priced this fight so far — no comparison yet.
